đ©» Climate Reality: The Diagnosis We Canât Escape
The climate crisis is no longer a future threat â itâs a terminal diagnosis, and the only moral response now is to act like everything depends on us, because it does.

There comes a point in your life when the facts wonât let you look away. You feel it before you know it: something is terribly wrong, and we are running out of time.
So letâs begin with something simple. How do you know something is true?
Take the example of cancer. If you feel a lump or have symptoms, you donât just ask your mate what they think. You go to a doctor. And not just any doctor â you want a specialist. Someone whoâs legally obliged to tell you the truth, however hard it is to hear. You want the tests, the scan, the data. And above all, you want a number: âWhatâs the likelihood I have it?â Because that number changes everything.
You donât want vague reassurances. You want the truth. If the doctor says thereâs a 50% chance, your life changes in that moment. You go into action. You start making decisions â fast. Because the alternative is death. And no one can run from that.
Itâs this same clarity, this same objectivity, that we need to bring to the climate crisis. Because the truth is â and I mean this literally â the planet has cancer. It is spreading. It is terminal. And it is going to kill us if we donât act, immediately.
This isnât ideology. Itâs not politics. Itâs not âjust your opinion.â It is physical reality. And just like cancer, it doesnât care what you believe.
In 1989, NASA scientist James Hansen warned the UN that if we didnât slash emissions, society would collapse. That was 35 years ago. In 2025, global temperatures have now risen to 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. And the rate of warming is accelerating. For most of the 20th century, the rise was around 0.18°C per decade. In the last ten years, itâs more than doubled to 0.37°C per decade. Weâre now on course to hit 2°C around 2035 â and thatâs being optimistic.
But what does that number mean?
A landmark peer-reviewed paper, âThe Future of the Human Niche,â published by Tim Lenton and colleagues, makes it brutally clear: at 2°C of warming, around 1 billion people will no longer be able to live where they currently do. Thatâs 25% of the Earthâs surface becoming uninhabitable. One billion refugees â in just a few years.
To put that into context: there were 50 million refugees after the Second World War. That was the worst war in human history. Whatâs coming is twenty times worse.
And that figure â one billion â only covers the effects of extreme heat. It doesnât include what happens when rising sea levels drown coastal cities, when droughts kill crops, when wildfires consume whole regions, when freshwater disappears. The truth is, climate collapse is not just an environmental issue. It is a full-system breakdown. It affects food, health, housing, energy, migration, and war â all at the same time.
Still think this is just about polar bears?
If youâre still not convinced, donât take it from me. Take it from the insurance industry. In 2024, the British actuarial society â a group of people whose job it is to measure risk for a living â released a report projecting that at 2°C of warming, weâll see 2 billion deaths. At 3°C? 4 billion. Thatâs half the population of the Earth.
And this is not worst-case modelling. This is their baseline. This is what the people who insure your life, your business, your pension, believe is most likely to happen if we stay on our current course.
It gets worse. Because climate breakdown isnât a one-off crisis â it triggers runaway feedback loops. Ice melts and reduces the planetâs ability to reflect sunlight, which makes it heat up faster. Permafrost thaws and releases methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more potent than COâ. Forests burn and release carbon. Soils lose their ability to absorb emissions. Everything begins to feed on itself. Even if we stopped all human emissions tomorrow, these systems may continue warming the planet â potentially beyond the point of recovery.
Most tipping points are estimated to be triggered between 1°C and 2°C. We are already at 1.6°C. We are now in the danger zone. There is no longer a buffer. There is no margin of error. This is happening in real time.
So what do we do?
Well, the answer is no different from the cancer patient. Two things: stop making it worse, and start trying to repair the damage. That means ending fossil fuel emissions as fast as humanly possible. That means scaling up emergency carbon removal. That means mobilising everything weâve got.
Will it work? We donât know. But what we do know is this: if we do nothing, billions will die. And not in some abstract future. In our lifetimes. In the lifetimes of our children.
This is not a problem for âsomeone else to solve.â This is your responsibility, your emergency, your world.

And if you think you still have a choice â let me be blunt: you donât. If your actions or inactions contribute to this collapse, you donât just destroy your own future. You destroy the lives of everyone around you. You condemn entire generations to hell on Earth because you couldnât face the truth.
Itâs not just foolish. Itâs not just selfish. Itâs evil.
Let me speak personally for a moment. Iâve met hundreds of people who, after hearing this reality, decided to act. Ordinary people. Teachers, nurses, students, grandparents. They quit their jobs. They faced arrest. Some went to prison. Not because they were heroes. But because they understood this one, simple thing: if we donât fight, we die. If we donât rise up, we burn.
You canât half-commit to this. You canât give a little donation, feel a bit guilty, and move on. Once youâve heard the truth, you are accountable. And the only question left is what youâre going to do about it.
So this is your moment. This is the turning point. If youâve read this far, you already know. You know whatâs coming. You know the scale of the crisis. You know the failure of our leaders.
You also know this: we are not powerless. There are millions of us waking up. Rising up. Organising. We are building the resistance that history will remember.
Join us.
Because history is watching.
And your children will ask what you did.
And one day, in the final hours of your life, you will ask yourself the same question.
Donât wait for the flood. Donât wait for the fire.
We have no choice but to act. And act we will.
This was meant to be Roger Hallamâs climate briefing for the Rev21 Convention.
But prison authorities blocked it.
Theyâve now banned him from posting on social media altogether.
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Update on Rogerâs Imprisonment
Rogerâs release has once again been delayed â originally expected in March, then May, and now postponed indefinitely. First, his designated home was deemed âunsuitableâ for rehabilitation because someone associated with Just Stop Oil was present. Then, following press coverage that included the name of his probation officer (quoted directly in the piece), Roger was placed on a high-risk list â supposedly due to the psychological impact on staff. That probation officer has since been replaced, but the new officer has refused to respond to legal communications from Rogerâs team.
It now appears that prison staff are refusing to meet with Roger directly, citing the âriskâ he poses to them. His lawyers have written to the prison, but there is no legal requirement for them to respond within a set timeframe, leaving him in a state of limbo.
At the same time, Rogerâs ability to contribute to public work has been severely restricted. Prison authorities have blocked over 20,000 words of his writing, and his input into the Convention and our social media efforts has been censored. Despite this, Roger continues to engage with projects through prison phone and email, where possible. He remains deeply committed to the cause and continues to support our work with unwavering clarity and determination.
As always, you can sign up for nonviolent civil resistance with the A22 Network internationally.
