đŹDialogue or Fascism: The Plan To Save All We Love
You wouldnât know it but millions of people are going to experience a lot of physical pain - not to mention the emotional pain of seeing the physical pain of those they love. The source of this pain is something called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This is the Atlantic current that comes up from the equator and keeps Europe warm. Last year it was revealed that Europe will experience an overnight fall in temperatures of 3-8C at any point after 2025 due to the AMOC collapsing. Why? Because the Greenland Ice Sheet and other Arctic ice sheets are irreversibly melting.
This prediction is an underestimate. Predictions by climate scientists are conservative because they only look at factors which are certain - and ignore uncertainties, even though they are very likely to happen. And so, for instance, it is no surprise that a few months later we have been told that the Greenland melt has been underestimated. We are now told this every year. As long as a defective methodology is used by scientists we can look forward to their predictions getting exponentially more conservative over the coming years. âScientists were shockedâ and similar phrases now occur in most âclimate changeâ articles.
And so we are heading to fascism. The first reason for this is because of the refusal of the liberal and mainstream media to make clear that âclimate changeâ means physical pain - lots of it, and then you will die. The collapse of the AMOC is just one of several catastrophic situations which are now locked in. But the real catastrophe is the unwillingness to acknowledge these are social crises, not âclimateâ crises. What needs to be communicated is what it will mean for your pension (it will not get paid), what it means for your food supply (it will collapse), what it means for law and order (you are likely to get shot).
The fact that such predictions seem outlandish is due to the greatest scandal of our time: the refusal of the media to tell people what ACTUALLY is going to happen. For instance the AMOC collapse will produce an overnight reduction of average temperatures by 3-8C in Europe (closer to 8C in Northern regions). Without a shadow of a doubt this will destroy our prosperity. At a minimum we will be thrown into a World War Two emergency - a state command economy and compulsory rationing. Think of an eternal Covid Lockdown and then times how bad it is by 10. That gets you in the ballpark of whatâs ahead of us.
Why don't people know this? Because no one in the media brings in an agricultural expert to tell us what an average -5C temperature situation across Europe means. Itâs obvious. It means mass starvation unless the country comes together into a wartime mode.
And if we don't all come together? Then we will experience the biggest shitshow in the last 10,000 years of human history. Wave after wave of crises which will get compounded into holocaust episodes as fascistic forces drag us into a hell of permanent war. Think about Gaza. And then think about it again. That is what happens when fascism takes hold. And it is taking hold all around us - wake up!
Everything now depends on avoiding the fascist pathway. How? First it requires a mass civil resistance movement that can respond to the social crises and overcome the neo-liberal establishment. That means breaking away from the liberal climate movement and the reformist middle class. Instead we need to build an alliance with the small town people, urban youth, and non-white communities. These are the only groups that are open to revolt. How many NGO meetings have I been in where nice, university educated people insist on doing nothing - not least because they are incapable of understanding that âclimate changeâ means you are going to be in a lot of physical pain - it is going to fucking hurt.
The second thing that needs to happen is a concrete dialogue with the social groups who are now moving towards fascism - small business people, farmers, disaffected youth. This means something very specific - a structured, ongoing programme of going into their spaces both on and off line. Thereâs a three-part sequence:
- Listening and summarising to genuinely understand their fears;
- Exploring with them their views and how they hold together;
- Only when trust is established, engaging in reasoned discussion on how best their values can find expression in pro-social rather than fascist form: that âburn baby burnâ means the death of their families and communities.
Doing this is NOT AN OPTION - it is a matter of life or death - social cohesion or social collapse (a nice liberal phrase for rape, slaughter and starvation). And you should engage in such projects as if your life depends upon it. Because it does.
Thirdly, none of this will happen without a prophetic, ethical leadership who tells the truth. Without this leadership people will not door knock! A few people have to go out there arguing for this strategy and outlining the vision. Our organisations have to say to the younger generation - âYou don't know shit and you need to learn fast. The potential leaders amongst you need to step upâ. Again, it requires a structural approach. Individuals need to be proactively head hunted, trained in week long retreats, and then mentored and supported. Leadership at a time of total fuckedness is tough tough tough - it is the ultimate responsibility. And it needs to happen.
Lastly - we need to understand that this strategy is almost bound to fail in the short term - humans cannot think straight about the future and they do not give up their privileges voluntarily. We will make no substantial progress until the ruptures start to come thick and fast - which could be very soon. The realistic strategy then is to create revolutionary organisational infrastructure, culture, and strategy that are ready to go - to be rolled out as an alternative pathway to social solidarity rather than fascism, as soon as there is no bread in the shops. This is what I call the Syriza strategy; named after the Greek political party that refused to get sucked in the neoliberal delusion. When shit hit the fan and the global economy collapsed, they went from 4% to 40% in the polls. Why? Because they offered a credible alternative to fascism.
Whoever is most prepared will win. And who wins will have a massive effect on whether billions die or just tens of millions. This is what historical agency means. Those of us who understand what is at stake have a lot of work to do. And knowing what we need to do is a massive benefit - it puts us in the ballpark of saving those we love. Which is, at the end of the day, what this is all about.
I've got two focuses:
- Revolution - Building social formations to create revolution and guide moments of social disruption.
- A Balanced Society - Building the new civilisation based on a new balance of deliberative democracy, compassion, and limited consumption.
Want to join me? Sign up my monthly Zoom call.
Can't wait a month? Sign up for nonviolent civil resistance with Just Stop Oil in the UK or via the A22 Network internationally. Alternatively, you can now join a new collaborative project I'm helping with called Humanity which is aiming to build the new world ahead based on deliberative democracy.
